February 12, 2026 - 172 views
New Welsh Government figures setting out how many additional homes may be needed across Wales over the next two decades have been published, replacing estimates last produced before the pandemic.
The 2025-based estimates of additional housing need, released on Thursday, provide an updated picture of pressure on housing supply and are expected to play a key role in future planning decisions by local authorities, including across North Wales.
The analysis looks at how many extra homes could be required between now and the mid-2040s, taking into account both existing unmet need and newly arising demand. Existing unmet need includes households living in overcrowded or concealed conditions, as well as people currently homeless and living in temporary accommodation. Newly arising need is based on the latest household population projections.
Cabinet Secretary for Housing and Local Government, Jayne Bryant MS, said the new estimates are designed to give councils and policymakers a clearer and more up-to-date evidence base for long-term housing planning.
Unlike the previous 2019-based estimates, the latest figures present existing unmet need as a single headline estimate rather than spreading it across several years. The data sources used to assess future income levels and private rental prices have also been updated to reflect more recent economic conditions.
A technical group made up of experts from Welsh Government and local authorities supported the work, advising on methodology and ensuring consistency with previous exercises. A detailed quality report has been published alongside the figures, setting out changes to assumptions and data sources.
Housing pressures remain a major issue in parts of North Wales, where a combination of rising house prices, limited rental supply and the impact of second homes and holiday lets have intensified affordability challenges in coastal and rural communities. Councils in Conwy, Gwynedd, Denbighshire and Anglesey have all highlighted growing demand for social housing and temporary accommodation in recent years.
The updated housing need estimates are expected to inform local development plans, housing strategies and future decisions on investment in affordable and social housing. While the figures do not set housing targets themselves, they provide a benchmark to help councils assess whether planned housing supply is sufficient to meet future demand.
The Welsh Government says the new estimates will support its wider aims of increasing housing supply, tackling homelessness and improving access to affordable homes, while ensuring decisions are based on transparent and robust evidence.
Further detail on the methodology and findings is available in the Welsh Government’s statistical article and accompanying quality report.
